Independent Christian Voice


Mapping the downhill slide

Charles Franklin at Political Arithmetik paints us a (bleak) picture that puts recent polls into perspective.
Here's a brief explanation of the graph:
Approval ratings of President Bush in 2005. The linear trend includes "step" changes following Hurricane Katrina and after the indictment of Lewis "Scooter" Libby. The green local regression line smoothly changes to estimate the trend. Points are for all public polls from all polling organizations. [...] Based on polls through 11/9, I estimate the Katrina effect as -1.26% and the post-indictment shock to approval as an additional -1.88%. The post-indictment effects include effects of other events of the same week, namely the 2000th U.S. troop death in Iraq, the withdrawal of the Harriet Miers Supreme Court nomination, and the subsequent nomination of Judge Samuel Alito. It is not possible to statistically separate the effects of each of these events, so the -1.88% estimate should NOT be interpreted as the effect of the Libby indictment alone but rather the cummulative impact of all these events
Charles also mapped out a graph for Bush's approval from the beginning:
The president's handlers and spokesliars repeatedly say that polls don't mean much and that they don't spend much time looking at them because they are busy with the people's business. It's obvious that they certainly are ignoring the polls insomuch as they are doing "staying the course" despite their free fall. As I said previously, the polls can be a fairly good indication on what the people think the "people's business" should be and if you're ignoring the polls, how can you really be doing the "people's business"?


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